A new nonpartisan poll, taken by American Research Group (an organization not affliated with any partisan group) shows incumbent New Hampshire republican senator John Sununu lossing to Democratic former governor (and his 2002 opponent) Jeanne Shaheen, 34/44. In case you are wondering where I got this poll from, it is in the subscriber pages of pollingreport.com.
It is beginning to look like we might do very well in with the senate races in 2008. We could win several more house seats, and things wouldn't change too much (other than having more insurance with regards to very close votes). But just a few more democrats in the senate could be very important. The fewer republicans that are in the senate, the harder it will be for them to filibuster. Minority rights are protected in the senate, but only to an extent.
A recent DSCC poll showed a democrat ahead of republican incumbent senator Gordon Smith by 4%. Worse news for Smith, Smith only polled at 38%. Remember Chafee? He was well liked, and a good fit for many voters in his state. But because of his partisan affiliation (and the way he would vote on the senate organizing resolution at the beginning of the senate term) he lost anyway, even though he had a 61% approval rating on election day.
Another bit of good news is that a top potential republican senate candidate (McInnis I think was the name) in Colorado (the only state with an open senate race, since the seat was vacated by a republican incumbent) dropped out. This guy had over $1 million in a house campaign account that he could have transfered. We already have a likely nominee, Rep. Mark Udall. He is unopposed, well funded, and well known throughout the state.
One other thing that I noticed was that republican governor of SD Mike Rounds seems to be unsure if he will challenge democratic senator Tim Johnson. This might have something to do with Johnson recovering from his brain surgery. Or it might have something to do with Johnson's 70% approval rating. Or again, it might have to do with the fact that the strongest republican in the state, John Thune, couldn't beat Johnson in a very bad year for democrats (2002). Hell republicans could only beat Tom Daschle by a fraction of a percentage point (with that strongest republican, Thune), even after trashing him in SD for years before the election, and while Bush won the state by 30%. But then, Daschle was the only incumbent democratic senator defeated in either 2004 or 2006.
The fact that we only have 12 seats to defend, and republicans have to defend 21 seats, works heavily in our favor. It also helps us that, yet again, the DSCC is crushing the NRSC in (early) fundraising. Hell, John Ensign, the new NRSC chief, is telling the RNC that the NRSC will need heavy RNC assistance, again. Remember, every democrat up in 2008 survived 2002. Therefore, these are solid and well liked incumbents. 2008 just might be a good year after all.